Unravel South Africa’s election chaos and Zuma’s influence
Pro-Russian accounts fuel polarisation as South Africa’s elections near. A look into the disinfo storm shaping the country’s political future
From foreign interference allegations and apartheid fires stoked to incitement to violence, an investigation into the online environment surrounding South Africa’s electoral landscape shows a series of concerning developments that pose potential threats to the stability of the upcoming elections. An analysis of South Africa’s information space since September 2023 has uncovered troubling disinformation trends. Code for Africa has uncovered a network of pro-Russian accounts amplifying the activities and narratives of the newly formed populist uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) Party, led by former president Jacob Zuma. These accounts also claim that the US is interfering with the upcoming elections.
It’s less than a month until South Africa’s crucial 29 May 2024 general elections and the political landscape is expectedly charged. A sluggish economy plagues the country, characterised by record unemployment, perennial power shortages and a governing party encumbered by allegations of corruption and incompetence.
Amid these challenges, experts have raised concerns that foreign influence actors, particularly those with Russian links, are capitalising on these societal divisions and manipulating political narratives on social media and elsewhere to influence the outcome of elections in Africa.
Pro-Russian accounts drum up support for MK Party
The investigation into South Africa’s online election landscape has identified a network of at least 10 pro-Russian X accounts actively amplifying messages from the MK Party since December 2023, when it was established. Among these accounts, eight are purportedly based in South Africa, while the remaining two originate from Russia. A prominent figure within this network is @DZumaSambudla, the daughter of former South African president and now leader of MK Party, Zuma. The account has been posting pro-Russian content since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Before this, the accounts’ posts relating to Russia were focused on Brics and the account’s support of the Russian Covid-19 vaccine.
Recently, the account posted anti-US conversations and attempts to discredit the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC). On 29 April 2024, the US ambassador to South Africa, Reuben Brigety, posted about his meeting with IEC officials. On 30 April 2024, @DZumaSambudla reposted the ambassador’s post three times, making different allegations.
In the first and second reposts, @DZumaSambudla claimed that ‘secret weapons’ were becoming clearer and that vote counting should be manual. Vote counting is already manual in South Africa. The first post received 35,300 views and 1,344 engagements; the second one attracted 231,900 views and 1,779 engagements. However, a sentiment analysis of the two posts indicated that many users did not believe the claims.
In the third post, @DZumaSambudla alleged that an ‘American device’ would be used during the elections to inflate the number of votes for the ANC. This post received ~77,900 views and 1,186 engagements. A sentiment analysis of the comments found people did not buy into this claim either, with most of them mocking @DZumaSambudla’s allegations.
The US ambassador’s X post about his meeting with IEC was also reposted by one other account from the pro-Russian network, although it did not receive significant interactions. Generally, between 29 April and 02 May 2024, there was a notable spike in conversation about this claim in South Africa. On X, the claim was mentioned 3,640 times. On Facebook, 26 accounts mentioned the claim, receiving 376 interactions. Four of these Facebook pages also cross-posted a screenshot of the ambassador’s X post. These four Facebook pages have a combined following of 511,961, potentially exposing a substantial audience to the allegation.
The ten pro-Russian accounts have been active since 2019. Since their creation, most have consistently promoted pro-Russian sentiments, including supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The accounts also actively circulated misinformation targeting Ukraine and NATO. On 19 June 2022, a post shared claims that Russian supporters in Ukraine were being tied up in the streets, and US president Joe Biden was happy about this situation. On July 18 2023, one of these accounts shared news that Russian president Vladimir Putin would attend the 2023 BRICS summit in Johannesburg with his friend Zuma.
Since the MK Party was formed in December 2023, these accounts have focused on promoting the party and continued their usual pro-Russian sentiments. They frequently praise Putin’s and Zuma’s leadership qualities. On 02 March 2024, one of these accounts shared a post stating that Russia was blessed with Putin while South Africa was blessed with Zuma. Many of them use the MK Party logo or images of Zuma as their profile pictures.
The accounts express disdain towards South African president Cyril Ramaphosa and his African National Congress (ANC) party. The accounts in the network accuse Ramaphosa of succumbing to Western and white interests in South Africa. On 18 November 2023, they referenced a news story that claimed Germany had loaned South Africa R10 billion to transition from coal. They twisted this article into a bribery allegation, claiming that Ramaphosa had accepted bribes from Germany to ‘keep South Africa in the dark’.
Threats of riots and chaos stir concerns of unrest
MK party representatives have made several threats of riots and chaos, if the party is not allowed to contest elections or if it does not receive a two-thirds majority of votes. This has raised concerns about potential unrest in the country.
These statements, shared widely on social media, are accompanied by videos depicting people brandishing firearms and the fact that Zuma’s supporters have been associated with previous violent unrest, such as the July 2021 riots in KwaZulu-Natal poses a potential threat.
According to reports, in January 2024, a sizable portion of the 65 men and women accused of instigating the July 2021 riots in KwaZulu-Natal arrived in court wearing MK Party regalia. There has also been at least one suspected political killing connected to the MK Party. This further exacerbates concerns of potential violence associated with Zuma’s new political home.
Visvin Reddy, an official of the MK Party from KwaZulu-Natal, warned about potential civil war during a rally on 7 March 2024. Reddy’s warning came in response to the ANC appealing to the courts for the disqualification of the MK Party over alleged logo infringement.
Addressing supporters at the rally, Reddy cautioned that any attempt to bar the MK Party from campaigning or appearing on the ballot could ignite a civil war. He later apologised for the inciting statement in an interview.
However, Reddy was charged by the National Prosecuting Authority on 03 April 2024 for inciting violence against the electoral commission. The charges have gained traction online, with 983 mentions on X and 1,663 interactions. On Facebook, 37 posts about the case received 1,410 interactions. On TikTok, two (1, 2) video clips highlighted the court charges. They received 35,900 views. The comments on the videos show varied reactions, with some advocating for Reddy’s imprisonment and others accusing the ANC of exploiting government institutions to attack the opposition.
On TikTok, four clips sharing the inciteful video received 44,504 views.
On Facebook, 53 accounts highlighted the inciting comments. The posts received 1,350 interactions.
In a coordinated effort, 13 Facebook accounts amplified Ramaphosa’s response to the incident, in which he warned that anyone threatening unrest before the elections would be arrested. These posts received 3,620 views and 270 interactions.
Before this, in February 2024, now dismissed MK Youth League interim leader Bonginkosi Khanyile stated that if the 2024 elections did not deliver the party a two-thirds majority in the parliament, its members would close down South Africa. He threatened that chaos and hell would break loose if the MK Party and its leader, Zuma, were not on the ballot. The video received 48,146 views across both X and Facebook. Between 13 and 14 March 2024, Khanyile’s inciting speech gained online traction, receiving 3,560 mentions on X and 3,141 interactions. On Facebook, it attracted 36 posts, receiving 2,174 interactions.
Similarly, on Facebook, 14 posts amplified an article highlighting Khanyile’s speech using the copy-paste technique. However, the posts did not receive significant interaction. On TikTok, eight video clips shared a section of the speech, receiving a combined 265,095 views. One TikTok video featured a caption expressing support for Khanyile’s speech, receiving 4,689 views.
Use of polarising rhetoric at political events
In recent months, the use of ‘Kill the boer’ has sparked heated debates. Between 01 September 2023 and 19 March 2024, 5,092 posts on X contained the phrase ‘Kill the Boer’. The spike in the mentions occurred after EFF leader Julius Malema used the phrase at a political rally in Johannesburg on 29 July 2023 and during the EFF Gauteng manifesto launch on 02 March 2024.
The phrase comes from an apartheid-era struggle anthem, ‘Dubul’ ibhunu’ (often translated as ‘Kill the boer’, but more correctly as ‘Shoot the boer’). The song evokes the proud history of the struggle against the apartheid regime. But thirty years after apartheid, it has become more controversial.
The ‘Kill the boer’ posts received 5,429,852 views and 44,000 interactions. On 06 Feb 2024, an account accused Malema of inciting genocide by singing ‘Kill the boer’ again at EFF’s manifesto launch. This particular post garnered 2,600,000 views and 11,907 total interactions. Another tweet, shared on 19 Jan 2024, made claims regarding South Africa bringing Israel to the International Court of Justice with accusations of genocide but ignoring mentioning the ongoing genocide and discrimination of boers in South Africa. The post received 6,769 total views and 144 total interactions. On 12 Jan 2024, another tweet claimed that the South African arguing genocide in Gaza before the ICJ is the same individual defending Malema in his court case for singing ‘Kill the boer’. This tweet also received 5,997 views and 167 total interactions.
Sentiment analysis shows that 88.6% of X posts have negative sentiments. On TikTok, 10 videos used the phrase, attracting 7,660 views and 98 interactions.
In 2011, when he was the ANC youth leader, Malema faced accusations of hate speech over the use of the ‘Kill the boer’ chant. The high court in Johannesburg initially ruled the chant was hate speech, but a subsequent appeal and mediation led to the matter being withdrawn. In 2022, lobby group AfriForum took legal action against Malema and the EFF over the slogan. But a judge ruled in favour of freedom of speech, citing the phrase’s expression of grievances about economic empowerment and land issues. AfriForum has appealed this decision, and the matter is still ongoing.
Political exploitation of neo-apartheid sentiments in South Africa
Mentions of apartheid have been significantly high during this pre-election period. On X, there were 52,000 mentions of apartheid between 01 January and 18 March 2024. Some 4.6% of the mentions were positive, whereas 49.6% were negative. The top hashtags accompanying these mentions were political in nature, including #VoteMK2024 and #2024IsOur1994. The spike in mentions of these two hashtags was possibly due to key political figures and their supporters using them in their own campaigns. An emerging narrative driven by these hashtags and posts is that the current government is a guardian or beneficiary of the apartheid regime. Of the total mentions of apartheid, 31,400 (more than 50%) also mention the incumbent government.
Between 13 and 18 February 2024, seven accounts on X shared posts about an alleged white supremacist training camp in South Africa, pointing to it as a recent event that could hint at an upcoming war or the return of apartheid. So far, these posts have received 594,000 views and 7,500 interactions. The earliest of these posts was on 13 February 2024 by an X account that appears to be anti-ANC and pro-EFF.
A reverse search on the video found it was part of a 2015 documentary on white supremacist camps in South Africa called Fatherland (2015) by UK-based film distribution company Journeyman Pictures. The company published this documentary on YouTube on 13 April 2015. The video has so far received 596,963 views and ~11,000 interactions.
Two accounts also shared these videos on TikTok on 14 and 15 February 2024, in posts that have received 1,353 views and 53 interactions so far.
Coordinated amplification of anti-ANC hashtags on X
Although it is expected to see a surge in hashtags pushing certain agendas on social media platforms during election campaigns, it is concerning when coordinated efforts are made to promote certain negative narratives. Between 22 and 26 February 2024, six accounts supporting the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) actively coordinated to amplify anti-ANC hashtags #VoetsekANC and #VoetsekANC2024 on X. ‘Voetsek’ is a pejorative Afrikaans term that loosely translates to ‘go away’. Each account reposted content containing these hashtags at least 50 times within four days.
The two hashtags were used 111,000 times on X alone between 01 January and 31 March 2024. The most mentions, 9,186, were made on 24 February 2024, the day the ANC launched its manifesto.
Some of the most retweeted posts bearing either #VoetsekANC or #VoetsekANC2024 between 01 January and 31 March 2024 included the following:
- Using #VoetsekANC an X account compared the ANC and EFF rallies held at the Moses Mabhida stadium in Kwa-Zulu Natal. The post published on 24 February 2024 said that one party filled the stadium with people from eight provinces (EFF) while the other (ANC) could only fill the stadium with provincial supporters. The ANC manifesto was launched on this day at Moses Mabhida stadium. The account purports to be a member of the EFF battalion. The post has so far received ~247,700 views and ~2600 interactions.
- An X account, while including both #VoetsekANC and #ANCManifestoLaunch posted videos of ANC supporters labelling them MK Party supporters. The account further stated that there is no loyalty in these stadium competitions. This post has so far received ~223,500 views and 1,101 interactions.
- On 24 February 2024, an account identified as belonging to the EFF battalion shared a post stating that voting for the ANC equates to supporting the DA, accompanied by the hashtag #VoetsekANC. The post featured a video of South African political analyst Aubrey Matshiqi discussing the ANC’s alignment with the interests of white capital and the white population in South Africa. As of now, the post has garnered approximately 38,000 views and 767 interactions.
- On 24 February 2024, another pro-EFF X account posted claims that ANC had ferried people by bus to fill the Moses Mabhida stadium to showcase that people love ANC. The account included #VoetsekANC on the post. This post has so far received ~95,500 views and 1,037 interactions.
A hashtag analysis on the accounts that used #VoetsekANC and #VoetsekANC2024 during the same time frame indicated that the accounts also posted or reposted pro-EFF content using the following popular hashtags:
- #2024isour1994- The accounts mentioned this hashtag 8,171 times, receiving 9,952 views and 1,314 interactions. Although this hashtag was initially coined by Rise Mzansi political party, EFF supporters have adopted it. The accounts used the hashtag to compare the 2024 elections and SA’s first democratic elections in 1994, urging voters to support the EFF party to overcome economic hardships.
- #effpresser- This hashtag received 2,400 mentions by these accounts with a combined total of ~1,100 views and 51 interactions. The hashtag is generally used by EFF supporters to amplify EFF’s media briefings.
- #registertovoteeff- This hashtag received 9,757 mentions from these accounts, with a combined total of 3,332 views and 536 interactions. The hashtag was used by EFF supporters to ramp up voter registration in preparation for the upcoming elections. More voter registrations would mean more votes in favour of EFF hence the call, ‘register to vote EFF.’
- #voteeff AND #voteeff2024-These hashtags received 1,402 mentions by these accounts with a combined total of 2,435 views and 218 interactions. This hashtag continues to be used by EFF supporters to push pro-EFF content like EFF manifesto launch or EFF press briefings on X in a bid to gain more supporters or votes in the upcoming elections.
As South Africa gears up for its pivotal 2024 general elections, the digital landscape is ablaze with activity and concern. With over 74.4% of citizens connected to the internet and a staggering 42.8% active on social media, the stage is set for a battle of narratives. Mobile services exceeding 100% penetration ensure widespread connectivity but also expose users to a deluge of digital content, including potentially misleading information from various sources. South Africa’s upcoming elections are set against a backdrop of widespread internet access and social media usage, creating fertile ground for the spread of misinformation. The rise of platforms like TikTok, now used by over 73.6% of social media users, adds another layer of complexity to the information ecosystem, increasing the risk of encountering misinformation and disinformation. Against this backdrop, experts warn of the need for heightened vigilance among journalists, government communicators, and policymakers to combat coordinated attempts at sowing discord during this critical election period.
This article was co-written by iLAB deputy manager Mitchelle Awuor and iLAB investigative analysts Anita Igbine, Dorcas Solonka, Hanna Teshager, and John Ndung’u. It was edited by iLAB managing editor, Athandiwe Saba, iLAB insights manager Nicholas Ibekwe, and iLAB copy editor Theresa Mallinson.
